The Florida GOP’s path to 1 million voter lead over Democrats by election day: what data shows

The Republican Party of Florida has its sights set on leading Democrats by one million voters by Nov. 5, the next and one of the most notable political milestones achievable for the party.

It was only late-April that county-level data compiled by Florida’s Voice showed the GOP breaking its 900,000 advantage. For reference, Democrats led by over 100,000 registered voters ahead of the 2020 election.

“Florida: Now home to nearly 1 million more Republicans than Democrats – and growing every day!” said Republican Party of Florida Chairman Evan Power late last month.

But Republicans have been hitting milestone after milestone only every few months, especially since 2021 when the registration game flipped in their favor.

At the end of 2022, the Florida GOP led by just under 400,000 voters.

Come June 2023, that lead was over 500,000. A 600,000 lead came last September, 700,000 was breached by last December, and 800,000 was surpassed this January.

For April, the GOP pace has slowed down, as Democrats have stopped hemorrhaging so many voters previously to the tune of tens of thousands per month.

With it being a presidential election year, with Chairwoman Nikki Fried at the helm and with abortion on the ballot, Democrats maintain Florida is “in play.”

As of the start of May, the Florida GOP’s monthly lead gain over Democrats from the end of March was around 11,000 voters. That is considerably less than the party’s 36,333 jump from February to March.

Since 2022, the GOP’s monthly lead gain has ranged anywhere from 17,000 to upwards of 81,000 in a single month.

GOP pathway to one million: Is it possible before election day?

Data as of May 10, compiled by Florida’s Voice from all 67 counties, shows the GOP leads the Democrats by 905,705 registered voters. Madison County was the latest to flip for the GOP, handing them an advantage in 57 counties.

For the Florida GOP to reach a landmark one million voter registration lead by Nov. 5., it must achieve an average of a 15,716 lead expansion per month for the next six months ….

The ramifications of the Democrats’ newfound enthusiasm deficit in Florida have yet to be seen in a presidential election, but the 2022 midterms – where the GOP swept by around 20% statewide – could be a sign.

Polls so far have suggested former President Donald Trump can defeat President Joe Biden in Florida by double digits. The RealClearPolling aggregate has Trump up over Biden by 9%, as does a recent new poll.

The Florida GOP’s path to 1 million voter lead over Democrats by election day: what data shows (


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